Global Slowdown

The world economy will be as weak next year as it was in 2009 after the financial crisis as the conflict in Ukraine risks becoming a “forever war,” the Institute of International Finance said. Global growth will expand 1.2% while the Eurozone will contract 2% as the war drags on. “The severity of the coming hit to global GDP depends principally on the trajectory of the war in Ukraine,” IIF analysts wrote.

Panic Buying

Supermarket delivery apps in Beijing are being overwhelmed as the city’s rising Covid caseload triggers lockdown-like restrictions in swathes of the Chinese capital. Beijing saw 1,854 new infections Thursday, up from 1,611 on Wednesday, as China’s wider outbreak reaches record levels. Delivery apps like Alibaba’s Freshippo and Walmart’s Sam’s Club were running out of capacity to deliver on Thursday, and other grocery outlets in Chaoyang, Beijing’s biggest district, were no longer taking orders. 

Oil Logjam

European diplomats are locked in negotiations over how strict a price cap on Russian oil should be, revealing divisions in the bloc. Poland rejected the EU’s executive arm’s proposed price of $65 per barrel as being too soft on Moscow. Greece, a massive player in the oil shipping industry, doesn’t want to go below $70. Talks on the Group of Seven-led proposal were delayed as diplomats tried to bridge differences between member states. Negotiations may resume Friday or face further delays.

Twitter Amnesty

Elon Musk said Twitter will vastly expand the reinstatement of banned users from next week in a major reversal of the site’s content-moderation policies. In response to a poll conducted by Musk, about 72% of participants voted in favor of a “general amnesty” for suspended accounts on Twitter “provided that they have not broken the law or engaged in egregious spam.” Musk on Thursday said the amnesty will begin next week. Previously banned users Donald Trump and Canadian self-help author Jordan Peterson have already returned. 

Coming Up…

European equity futures indicated a subdued market open. US markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. German GDP data and consumer confidence data will be released as will Italian and French consumer confidence gauges. Swedish producer price data and Danish retail sales are also set for release. Orron Energy, a Swedish renewables group, is among the few companies releasing earnings reports.​​​​

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(Source: Bloomberg, Nov. 25-2022)