No Escaping It

Rishi Sunak’s government said it’s inevitable that all Britons, especially the richest, will have to pay more tax to restore stability to the public finances. Sunak met with Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt on Monday to discuss tax and spending plans ahead of an economic statement planned for Nov. 17. They discussed the “eye-watering” gap in Britain’s public finances and agreed “tough decisions” are needed on tax rises and on spending, according to a Treasury readout. The measures are necessary to bring calm to financial markets that dumped UK government bonds and the pound after Liz Truss’s tumultuous 44 days as prime minister. 

Windfall Profits

US President Joe Biden said he’d seek to impose higher taxes on oil companies that record “windfall” profits without reinvesting in production, with US gasoline prices still high a week ahead of midterm elections. In his brief speech, Biden set out a promise that will be all but impossible to deliver. Many Democrats have unsuccessfully sought a so-called windfall profit tax for more than a decade. No such proposal is likely to pass the current Senate, evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. Unless Biden’s party makes unexpected gains in next week’s elections, the GOP and centrist Democrats will be able to block it for the foreseeable future.

Powell’s Favored Curve

The Federal Reserve’s fifth-straight outsized rate hike may spur fresh warnings that a recession is inevitable, based on a bond-market signal preferred by Chair Jerome Powell himself. Powell’s favored yield curve — where three-month rates are now versus where they are expected to be in 18 months’ time — is on the cusp of inverting, with the spread between the two tumbling to a mere 0.2% Tuesday from 2.7% in April. An inverted yield curve is a key warning sign for many investors that a recession is coming, and many closely watched spreads in the Treasury market have already flipped below zero. Meanwhile, JPMorgan estimates that a dovish Fed could spark 10% rally in the S&P.

Not for Sale

Any bargain hunters hoping to snap up Credit Suisse now that the lender’s revamp has pushed its stock down yet again may find themselves getting short shrift in Zurich. “We are going to thrive again, so we don’t have any takeover discussions,” Credit Suisse Chairman Axel Lehmann said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. With its share price slumping by more than half this year, the 166-year-old institution has been vulnerable to rumors of takeover bids and concerns over its stability. Lehmann said the 4 billion Swiss franc ($4 billion) capital increase would make the lender “rock solid,” helping it to carry out a vital restructuring. 

Coming Up…

European shares are set to track gains in Asia as bond yields rise and investors hone in on central bank decisions. Denmark votes in an election that could push Mette Frederiksen out of office for her role in the illegal culling of 17 million mink during the pandemic. Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves gives a speech. Expected data include manufacturing PMIs from Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands, Switzerland, Norway, Greece, UK and Denmark. BP’s buyback plans will be in focus as the oil major reports quarterly results. Eli Lilly, Pfizer and AMD are also on the earnings docket.

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(Source: Bloomberg, Nov. 1-2022)